The carbon managers: modelling possible pathways for the EU chemical sector’s transition towards climate-neutrality and circularity with iC2050
In order to complement our analysis, we have “challenged” the “Base Case” scenario, with a series of “what if” and “what if not” sensitivities, to explore other hypothetical futures. These sensitivities focus on four categories of abatement solutions: electrification, biomass, recycling, and carbon capture. In the “Base Case” scenario, electricity is assumed to have limited availability within the chemical industry.
For electrification, we looked at the impact of higher or lower availability and prices. Constraining access to electricity and increasing its price have a clear negative effect on the industry’s abatement curve.
The availability of sustainable biomass is another key factor impacting the industry’s emission trajectory,
limiting or increasing the role of negative emissions. Fossil-based feedstock stays the main source of carbon feedstock when severely constraining access to biomass. While captured CO2 and recycled feedstock play significant roles, they are unable to compensate for the reduced share of biomass. To achieve a feasible solution with restricted access to bio-based feedstock, the yearly availability of electricity has been increased to 1,000TWh and the access to biomethane as a fuel for heat generation has been increased.
The impacts of increasing or decreasing enabling conditions for recycling are explored, with assumptions
on mechanical recycling volumes and chemical recycling technologies varying across scenarios, highlighting the potential of both mechanical and chemical recycling in reducing reliance on virgin raw materials and minimising carbon emissions. By comparing scenarios with differing levels of recycling technology deployment and policy support, the analysis demonstrates how enhanced recycling efforts could significantly increase the share of circular carbon. Last but not least, the development and deployment of solutions related to carbon capture, as well as the surrounding infrastructure for transport and storage, significantly shape the sector’s abatement pathway.
Having more solutions available reduces the pressure to substitute fossil carbon sources. In a constrained
scenario, the chemical sector needs to show resilience by adapting its fuel mix and deploying alternative
technologies to manage emissions upstream. When comparing all the above sensitivities, we see that limiting access to biomass significantly reduces the potential for removals and therefore results in lower gross residual emissions but it is also the costliest route.
Securing access to electricity at competitive prices results as the most efficient lever to reduce the costs
of achieving the targets. It also reduces the reliance on negative emissions to reach climate-neutrality. The
reliance on bio-based technologies and bio-based feedstock is the most elastic and sensitive to changes in the assumptions, therefore showing by far the biggest range of uncertainty. On the contrary, scenario results on the electrification of crackers remain pretty stable across scenarios.
source :
Temukan peta dengan kualitas terbaik untuk gambar peta indonesia lengkap dengan provinsi.
