Future proofing the vision for agriculture and food

The agri-food sector is a strategic sector for Europe. It is also a critical asset, as it needs to ensure
the security and resilience of food supply and food production in the European Union. The EU has a
range of policy instruments, including the common agricultural policy (CAP), allowing it to shape the
agri-food sector and implement its strategic objectives. These policies influence the sector’s
development, competitiveness, and sustainability, as well as its contribution to broader EU goals,
such as the European Green Deal.
While the sector is vulnerable to various challenges, such as climate change, it also has the capacity
to adapt and innovate. Policies also need to be more future-oriented, as well as tailored to local
needs, to become more resilient. This would ensure that the agri-food system is sustainable,
attractive, competitive and fair, today and tomorrow.
In this context, this paper examines the recently published European Commission communication
on a ‘Vision for agriculture and food’ and ‘future-proofs’ its different sections. It explores different
options to make the vision more robust and able to resist different future contexts.
While the agricultural sector traditionally relies on modelling, it also faces numerous challenges and
uncertainties that cannot always be sufficiently examined through quantification and forecasting.
This is where the use of foresight and scenarios provides a framework to apply a foresight method
known as wind-tunnelling to different parts from the vision and discuss how they can be improved,
in a participatory setting. The use of collective intelligence on the one hand, and the possibility to
ask ‘what if’ questions on the other, provides an added value to other tools and methods used. This
approach pushes us to think about different futures, place the vision within them, and act to make
future policies more resilient.
To enhance food security and sustainability, it is vital to consider the interactions between the EU
policy landscape, the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and key players in the
field (including farmers, agricultural and food companies, researchers, and policymakers). However,
many uncertainties lie ahead, ranging from the impacts of climate change on agriculture and arable
land to ensuring food security for all.

source:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2025/765803/EPRS_IDA(2025)765803_EN.pdf