Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks

2024 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5 ◦C above preindustrial
climate conditions for the first time and records broken across large parts of Earth’s surface. Among
the widespread impacts of exceptional heat, rising food prices are beginning to play a prominent role
in public perception, now the second most frequently cited impact of climate change experienced globally, following only extreme heat itself. Recent econometric analysis confirms that abnormally high temperatures directly cause higher food prices, as impacts on agricultural production [3] translate into supply shortages and food price inflation.

These analyses track changes in overall price aggregates which are typically slow-moving, but specific food goods can also experience much stronger short-term price spikes in response to extreme heat. In this perspective, we document numerous examples from recent years in which food prices of specific goods spiked in response to heat, drought and heavy precipitation extremes. By evaluating the extremity of the associated climate conditions, we thereby build a global and climatological context for this phenomenon. We further review the knock-on societal risks which these effects may bring with the ongoing intensification of extremes under climate change.

These range from increasing economic inequality and the burden on health systems, as well as destabilising monetary and political systems. We discuss challenges and priorities for research and policy to address these risks.

source:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ade45f