Envisaging the Future of Cities

While the COVID-19 pandemic dominated the two years between editions of the World Cities Report and upended many aspects of urban life, this Report comes at a time when world events create ever more dynamic environments for urban actors. Although most of the world has lifted the public health restrictions and border closures that made COVID-19 such a dominant aspect of urban life, the virus continues to flare up periodically and some countries still have strict measures in place. Recently, the world has witnessed a sudden global spike in inflation and cost of living, alongside supply chain disruptions, which is severely affecting the recovery of urban economies. New and persistent armed conflicts have altered the geopolitical order and contributed to global economic uncertainty.

The disruptive nature of the COVID-19 pandemic is a stark reminder that urban areas need to be prepared for dynamic and unpredictable futures. Cities across the world were totally unprepared for the magnitude of the economic and social impacts of the pandemic. The pandemic revealed and amplified long-standing weaknesses in the social structure of cities, resulting in disproportionate impacts on vulnerable and marginalized groups. Key lessons emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic are that urban areas must invest in preparedness, which requires developing the economic, social, environmental and institutional resilience to respond to a wide range of shocks, including having contingency plans for the most vulnerable groups.

The foregoing raises key questions about the future of cities. What kind of cities do we envisage and reimagine in the aftermath of the pandemic? What kind of cities are needed to support humanity in a predominantly urban world? How do cities prepare for an uncertain world? Building economic, social and environmental resilience, including appropriate governance and institutional structures, must be at the heart of the future of cities. To meet this challenge, sustainable urban futures must prioritize reduction in poverty and inequality; foster productive and inclusive urban economies that provide opportunities for all; adopt environmental policies and actions that mitigate and adapt to climate change, promote clean energy and protect ecosystems; integrate public health into urban development; – facilitated by responsive urban planning and governance systems in which with finance, innovation and technology play overarching roles.

Key Findings

Cities are here to stay, and the future of humanity is undoubtedly urban: The experience in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, when some residents fled large cities was a temporary response that will not fundamentally change the course of global urbanization. We are witnessing a world that will continue to urbanize over the next three decades—from 56 per cent in 2021 to 68 per cent in 2050. This translates into an increase of 2.2 billion urban residents, living mostly in Africa and Asia. All regions of the world are expected to become more urbanized, although highly urbanized and more developed regions are expected to stabilize or experience a decline in urban growth. Unequivocally, this tells us that cities are here to stay, and that the future of humanity is undoubtedly urban, but not exclusively in large metropolitan areas.

The future of cities is not uniform across regions and can lead to a range of scenarios: While responding to climate change vulnerability and rising levels of inequality are global concerns, other issues are bifurcated by region. In developed countries, the key priorities for the future of cities also include managing cultural diversity, upgrading and modernizing ageing infrastructure, addressing shrinking and declining cities, and meeting the needs of an increasingly ageing population. In developing countries, urban priorities for the future are rising levels of poverty, providing adequate infrastructure, affordable and adequate housing and addressing challenge of slums, high levels of youth unemployment, and investing in secondary cities. How these challenges are addressed will lead to a range of future scenarios.

Source:

https://unhabitat.org/sites/default/files/2022/06/wcr_2022.pdf