Does the 15 minute city promote sustainable travel? Quantifying the 15 minute city and assessing its impact on individual motorized travel, active travel, public transit ridership and CO2 emissions
The “15-minute city” concept was initially introduced in public discussion through an opinion piece by Carlos Moreno in the French newspaper La Tribune (Moreno, 2016). The backdrop of the article was that, against an ever-increasing urban population and the breaking of the barriers that had previously separated “daytime activities” from “nightlife activities” (since one could now, for example, shop online and have the item delivered to a nearby pick-up point any moment of the day), a new type of chronourbanism, that did not rely on a static sequence of activities, needed to be implemented (Moreno, 2016).
Moreover, that backdrop included the then-recent signing of the Paris Agreement to limit the rise in global temperature. Hence, this “new chronourbanism” should be implemented by restructuring the urban landscape so that proximity, diversity, density, and ubiquity would allow citizens to fulfil their daily needs sustainably by bringing supply closer to demand, allowing citizens to walk or bike to their destinations in 15 minutes or less. However, the possibility of these “hyperproximities” being linked by “new generation public mobility services (such as) on-demand buses (with or without driver), and multimodal and shared services” was also briefly discussed (Moreno, 2016).
Since then, the 15-minute city concept has gained traction among decision-makers. The model has started shaping policy among the C40 – a network of mayors of some leading world cities (C40, 2021). The Driving Urban Transitions (DUT) Partnership, co-funded by 28 European Union (EU) members, has included a “15-minute City Transition Pathway” to promote a sustainable urban mobility transition (DUT, 2023). The signs that this “proximity revival” may be successful are promising.
Therefore, we propose to explore the degree to which the 15-minute city may effectively promote non-motorized travel and transit and reduce individual motorized travel and CO2 emissions. Moreover, we will assess if the number of different amenitiesat walking distance increases non-motorized engagement with 15-minute urban functions. Furthermore, we will control for the impact of more common land use variables: density, rail-based transit supply and centrality on travel demand that might enhance the “15-minute effect”. The research goal is to assess the effectiveness of the 15-minute city (the “net” effect) in
promoting sustainable travel in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA).
The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides context to the 15-minute city (section 2.1.) and presents recent research on it, focused on measuring or quantifying the 15-minute city, which will help us identify it in the LMA (subsection 2.2.). Section 3 explains how we built our dataset and the methods used in the subsequent analysis. The results are presented and discussed in section 4. Finally, Section 5 presents the key takeaways from the paper, namely answering the research question and pointing
ways for further research.
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