Pathways for low-carbon transition in Bangladesh 2025-2050
Bangladesh has developed rapidly over the past decades. However, the development of the renewable
energy supply (mainly hydro and biofuels) has not kept pace with the needs of its economy, which has
grown to rely on higher carbon energy (mainly coal and oil). In 1990, over 62% of the primary energy was
supplied from clean energy sources. By 2019, this situation had changed drastically with more than 55% of the primary energy being supplied from fossil-based energy sources.
Emissions from energy related sources have more than quadrupled since 2000 from 20.9 million tons of
carbon dioxide (MtCO2 ) to 90.7 MtCO2 in 2021 (World Bank 2021). This can be attributed to the rising energy demand due to population and industrial growth coupled with progress on the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda to provide adequate access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy to all (SDG 7).
Energy consumption is expected to rise considerably in the future with the rise in population and economic development. The economy is anticipated to more than double between 2020 and 2050. Also, the country’s population is expected to increase by 29 million people between 2020 and 2050. Further economic growth and increasing urbanization will lead to changes in consumer preferences, behavior, and lifestyle changes resulting in higher energy demand.
The Paris Agreement, adopted at the 21st meetings of the Conference of Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) toward combating climate change, calls for global efforts in form of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction commitments and climate change adaptation from all signatory countries. It further requires nations to strengthen their mitigation-related commitments over time.
The Government of Bangladesh submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to
UNFCCC on 25 September 2015, for three sectors: power, industry, and transport. In the INDC, the government proposed a 5% unconditional reduction in GHG emissions relative to the base year of 2011 by 2030 and a further 10% conditional reduction conditional on support from the international community. In August 2021, the INDC was updated to include additional sectors and enhanced its ambition for mitigation.
This study commissioned by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) explores future pathways for the energy sector and national GHG emissions up to 2050. The widely used MESSAGEix energy model has been applied with a scenario-based approach contrasting two alternative scenarios. A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assumes continuation of current and historic policy and technology trends and a low-carbon scenario incorporates policy shifts and technical change in support of the Paris Agreement goals. Both scenarios use the same projections for population and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP2]). The model shows that a reduction in energy use and associated emissions is achievable with a departure from current trends and policies; however, while both scenarios have a high investment cost, the low-carbon pathway is more expensive and requires significant behavioral change.
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