Planning for transit-oriented development in emerging cities

Cities account for more than 50 percent of the world’s population and 80 percent of its economic
output (International Energy Agency, 2021). The concentration of people in cities is expected to
continue through 2050, adding an additional 2.3 billion urban dwellers. At that point, an estimated
70 percent of the world’s population will reside in cities. Considering this rapid urbanization, a
common pitfall is to focus only on the challenges faced by the world’s megacities, which neglects the
many growing small and mid-sized cities. Notably, about 75 percent of the world’s urban population
live in settlements of less than 500,000 people (Cities Alliance, 2019).
Cities and urban transport are increasingly critical frontiers for climate action. More than
70 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions come from cities, making their mitigation efforts
an important contributor to decarbonization. Urban transport is a significant contributor to
climate-warming greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in cities, with most urban transport emissions
coming from cars. Private vehicles and low-occupancy ride-hailing services are carbon-inefficient
per passenger-kilometer served (Figure ES1). Additionally, car-centric transport systems are a
significant contributor to sprawling, low-density settlement configurations that displace natural
carbon sinks. Managing motorization and encouraging the use of more carbon-efficient modes such
as walking, biking, and public transport is fundamental to a low-carbon development trajectory
while supporting sustainable development goals for livable cities, social inclusion, clean air, and
road safety.

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