Will COVID-19 Redefine Cities?

If we could transport ourselves back to the last major global pandemic, the Spanish Flu of 1918 to 1920, we would find deserted city centers, curfews, and quarantines. However, a century ago, the pandemic eventually gave way to the social revolution of the Roaring Twenties—Les Années Folles. The future for humanity then was not defined by social distancing any more than it will be for us now. Still, it’s worth asking: how will cities survive the current crisis, and how will they change?

In the short term, it might seem as if everything is in flux, but looking further ahead, I believe we will see that the pandemic has merely accelerated trends that were already underway. The first and most dominant trend is the power of the city as a social magnet. This collective energy generates wealth and opportunity—the GDP of New York City, for instance, is four times that of Switzerland. There is also a statistical correlation with greater life expectancy, lower infant mortality, and higher levels of education.

History shows that cities often transform in response to crises. The Great Fire of London led to building codes that shaped the elegant Georgian city; the response to the London cholera epidemic in the mid-19th century was a new citywide sanitation system. In the same century, public parks and gardens emerged as a response to health concerns. More recently, the smoggy conditions of London and Los Angeles in the 1950s and 1970s prompted the creation of Clean Air Acts. While these developments might have occurred independently, crises undoubtedly hastened their implementation.

In an era of climate change and decarbonization, the evolving nature of mobility is another significant trend. We are already witnessing a shift from fossil fuel-powered vehicles to electric ones that can charge by induction while in motion. When driverless, these vehicles will be able to park densely and safely, platooning nose-to-tail. This is happening as younger generations increasingly eschew car ownership in favor of ride-sharing and on-demand services, accessible with the touch of an app.

Source:

https://www.clc.gov.sg/docs/default-source/urban-solutions/urbsol19pdf/04_opinion_norman-foster.pdf