Insight Paper _ The Uncertainty of Methane Emissions in Indonesia’s Energy Sector
Methane emissions from Indonesia’s energy sector are an increasingly important concern in the country’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, yet considerable uncertainty remains regarding their scale and trends. The publication The Uncertainty of Methane Emissions in Indonesia’s Energy Sector examines significant discrepancies between official government estimates and independent scientific estimates of methane emissions from the energy sector. Indonesia’s National Inventory Report (NIR) indicates a declining trend in methane emissions, while estimates from the Potsdam Real-time Integrated Model for the probabilistic Assessment of emission Path (PRIMAP) suggest the opposite, with the gap between the two estimates reaching approximately 242 MtCO2e in 2024. PRIMAP estimates also show a strong relationship with Indonesia’s fossil fuel production trends and indicate that energy sector methane emissions reached approximately 264 MtCO2e in 2024, 29% higher than in 2020.
IESR’s analysis highlights that these discrepancies point to the need for fundamental improvements in Indonesia’s methane emissions inventory and management, particularly for fugitive emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas production. Data limitations, inventory methodologies, and the absence of a standardized Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system make it difficult for Indonesia to determine its actual methane emissions and define a fair contribution toward achieving the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) target. The publication also highlights the absence of dedicated regulations and a national roadmap for reducing methane emissions from the energy sector. At the corporate level, mitigation efforts in the oil and gas industry are beginning to advance, but they remain largely driven by market forces and international initiatives, while coal mine methane management in the coal industry remains limited. Strengthening regulations, standardizing MRV, improving emissions data transparency, and developing targeted methane mitigation strategies are therefore essential to reinforce Indonesia’s commitment to reducing methane emissions from the energy sector.
Indonesia Methane Emissions, Energy Sector Methane Emissions, Methane Emissions in Indonesia, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Indonesia, Methane Emissions Inventory, Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Report, Indonesia NIR, PRIMAP, Methane Emissions Data, Methane Emissions Estimates, Methane Emissions Uncertainty, Fugitive Emissions, Fossil Fuel Production, Fossil Fuel Emissions, Coal Methane Emissions, Oil and Gas Methane Emissions, Coal Mine Methane, CMM, Methane Mitigation, Methane Emissions Reduction, Measurement Reporting and Verification, Methane MRV, Global Methane Pledge, GMP, Indonesia Methane Policy, Methane Emissions Regulation, Indonesia Methane Roadmap, Energy Sector Decarbonization, Indonesia Energy Transition, Oil and Gas Methane Management, Coal Methane Management, Emissions Data Transparency, Indonesia Emissions Reduction Target
Authors
Rizky Tazkia Harijanto, Aditia Rabbani Pramusakti
