ASEAN renewable energy long-term roadmap

This ASEAN Renewable Energy Long-Term Roadmap (RE LTRM) serves as a strategic blueprint to transform the region’s energy transition vision into concrete action, aligning ASEAN’s economic outlook with its climate mitigation goals. It serves as a conceptual framework to guide the activity planning for the forthcoming ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation(APAEC) 2026-2030 by offering a science-based analysis of the policy choices needed to enhance regional competitiveness and achieve a sustainable energy future.
Building on the 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO8), this roadmap sharpens the focus for decision-makers. While AEO8 presented broad potential futures, this roadmap narrows the options by defining and analysing three distinct pathways (the ASEAN Policy-Aligned Scenario (APAS), the ASEAN
Renewable Electricity Coupling (AREC) Scenario and the ASEAN Shared Energy Resources (ASER) Scenario). These scenarios are specifically designed to chart an actionable course for bridging the critical gap between the AEO8’s Regional Aspiration Scenario (RAS) and its high-ambition Carbon Neutrality Scenario (CNS), providing precise insights on the policy choices needed to advance the region’s decarbonisation ambitions.
From National-led Deployment to Regional Integration. The next decade’s transition will be driven by a rapid increase in renewable capacity in the power sector, led by strong national plans. However, the analysis shows a distinct flattening of the capacity growth curve post-2035, indicating that sustaining the momentum requires a strategic redesign, as well as a stronger energy efficiency ambition for the end-use sector. Despite their continued growth, renewable energy (RE) and variable renewable energy (vRE) face resource constraints. Without more stringent electricity demand reduction, there is a real risk that the region’s power sector could once again become locked into reliance on fossil fuel-fired plants for several more decades, even if carbon pricing is applied.
Renewables Will Overtake Fossil Fuels by 2030. A critical tipping point is projected to occur around 2030, where total renewable capacity will surpass the total fossil fuel capacity. This transition is so rapid that vRE capacity alone is set to overtake coal as the single largest source on the grid during this period. This marks the beginning of a long-term structural shift where coal and oil decline, while natural gas peaks in the medium term before handing over of its flexibility role to storage. A High-vRE Grid is a Universal and Non-Negotiable Future. Across all scenarios, the share of generation from vRE converges at a very high level of 42–47% by 2045. This indicates that the entire region is destined for a future where the grid is operationally dominated by intermittent renewables, making investment in flexibility an urgent priority. This challenge will require tailored national strategies, as vRE leaders like Viet Nam will face the
advanced challenges of a 60–70% vRE share while others will focus on managing daily energy surpluses.
Decarbonising Industry and Transport is the Core Long-Term Challenge. The industry and transport sectors account for the majority of demand growth. The decarbonisation of these sectors requires a diverse policy and strategy spectrum with fuel switching options including electrification, bioenergy, and low-carbon fuels such as green hydrogen.
Also, further analysis and evidence pertaining to technology readiness, local supply chain, cross-border trade potential, financial returns and incentives, and availability of supply to meet the needs are needed to facilitate dialogue among stakeholders and explore the deeper practical and feasible pathways that best fit the ASEAN context.
Only a Multi-Sector Approach Can Bend the Emissions Curve. A coordinated power-sector focus (the AREC pathway) is essential but is shown to be insufficient, as regional emissions plateau and begin to rise
again post-2035. Only the deep, multi-sector, market-driven policies of the ASER pathway which address industry and transport through clean fuel markets and carbon pricing can put the region on a firm path to an absolute reduction in emissions.

source:
https://aseanenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/ASEAN-Renewable-Energy-Long-Term-Roadmap.pdf