Welcome to the August edition of the IEEFA Australia newsletter, your source for independent financial analysis on energy markets, regulation and the clean energy transition. Our latest analysis finds:LNG exports soak up domestic gas demand fallCoal’s over-reliance on offsets skews carbon marketsGreen iron needs mining boom-scale capital, strong price signalFall in inflation masks looming Iran crisis fuel falloutDER is delivering across Australia and South Asia Amandine Denis-Ryan CEO, Australia Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
Latest Research
LNG exports soak up more of Australia’s gas as domestic demand fallsJosh Runciman The latest update of IEEFA’s Australian Gas and LNG Tracker reveals domestic gas consumption is falling as LNG exports rose. Global LNG exports also increased on the back of surging US supply, despite the impact of the Iran war. China’s LNG imports fell materially, driving a fall in Asian LNG imports year on year to the first half of 2026. Queensland net gas supply to other states was virtually zero in FY2025-26. Explore the Tracker
The coal-fired carbon credit marketAndrew Gorringe As the federal government begins its review of the Safeguard Mechanism, a key focus must be on the coal mining sector’s growing reliance on carbon credits to offset its emissions. Coal is the biggest user of offsets in the Safeguard Mechanism, and its over-reliance on carbon credits is distorting the market for other users. Moreover, carbon credits do little to address one of coal mining’s key problems: its methane emissions.Read more
Scale of investment needed for Australia’s green iron ambitionLachlan Wright Green iron is capital-intensive. Replacing Australia’s metallurgical coal exports with green iron by 2040 would require annual investment of AUD170 billion, on par with the mining boom peak. Such a high level of investment requires coordination on infrastructure and a strong, sustained price signal beyond what is available today. Australia can leverage policy tools that were successful in renewables to fill the gap. Read more
Why July’s inflation relief may be short-lived Amandine Denis-Ryan Annual inflation dropped by 0.3 percentage points in July, but higher transport fuel costs are likely to push it up again in August as the end of the fuel excise cuts flows through. While Australia’s oil use as a share of GDP has declined steadily, oil price increases mean wholesale oil costs as a share of GDP have stayed at 1970s levels. A low demand elasticity to oil prices, and a rapidly growing dependence on diesel, are other factors that increase Australia’s exposure to oil shocks. Read more
.png?upscale=true&width=1200&upscale=true&name=Fig%202%20-%20Capex%20Comp%20(1).png)
