Climate change pushes crop diversity toward extinction at low latitudes

Climate change pushes crop diversity toward extinction at low latitudes, threatening food security for billions in tropical regions.

Global warming is dramatically altering the climatic suitability of croplands worldwide, with impacts distributed unequally across regions. Recent research reveals that even at 2°C warming, 10-31% of crop production in low-latitude regions would shift outside suitable growing conditions, increasing to 20-48% under 3°C warming scenarios.

The study, examining 30 major food crops under four warming scenarios (1.5-4°C), found that potential food crop diversity would decline on 52% of global cropland with 2°C warming and 56% with 3°C warming. Crops most severely affected include tropical staples like coconut, yams, and pigeon peas, with over 50% of their current production areas becoming unsuitable at 3°C warming. Meanwhile, mid-to-high latitude regions would experience increased potential crop diversity, creating adaptation opportunities.

These findings highlight an urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies in tropical regions where adaptive capacity is already low. The research suggests that without substantial climate mitigation efforts, international trade arrangements and financing for innovative agricultural adaptation in low-income countries will be critical to maintaining food security in vulnerable regions.

By Sara Heikonen, Matias Heino, Mika Jalava, Stefan Siebert, Daniel Viviroli, and Matti Kummu.