Extreme heat the emerging science and its implications for Asia and the Pacific

The stimulus for this paper comes from two sources. First, recent years have witnessed record-shattering extreme heat episodes in Asia and the Pacific with severe impacts on lives, livelihoods, infrastructure, and economies. These demonstrate that decision-makers in the region need to pay more attention to extreme heat, because existing coping capacities are being exceeded. Without significant efforts to build adaptive capacities, further warming could result in even more catastrophic consequences. Second, rapid advances in research and data on extreme heat and its socioeconomic impacts can be applied within the region to understand and manage risks. The staggering pace of development in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) applications for extreme heat forecasting and projections is just one example. Emerging science is also aiding understanding of compound hazards, when extreme heat combines with other hazards such as extreme precipitation, droughts and tropical cyclones producing potentially game-changing impacts. This paper aims to share these scientific developments, and their applications for Asia and the Pacific, with a broad audience of decision-makers in the region. It places precedence on recent research articles and publications, with the majority from 2020 and later.

Governments at all levels, along with companies in the real economy, can begin to utilize this new knowledge so that policies, programs, and investments become more resilient to extreme heat, now and in the future. Most existing national adaptation plans in the region fail to recognize the need to address extreme heat impacts in key areas including education, workers, and transport. New research presented in this paper sheds light on these important topics. Improvements in forecasting and modeling of exceptional heat extremes help to identify risk hotspots within the region where efforts should be focused. These can assist governments, communities, and private companies in preparing for greater health risks for vulnerable groups and employees. Insurers, banks, and investors can engage with this emerging science and data to develop financial solutions which meet the needs of communities, private companies, and the public sector. Multilateral institutions can ensure they understand the latest implications of extreme heat in the region. Using this paper, they can consider how existing climate diagnostic tools and approaches can be strengthened so that technical advice to members, domestic investments, and proposed adaptation measures are fit-for-purpose. This paper concludes with five recommendations on the first key steps these organizations can take to apply this knowledge.

source:

https://www.adb.org/publications/extreme-heat-asia-pacific