Global energy perspective 2025

The Global Energy Perspective is intended to serve as a fact base to help stakeholders navigate the opportunities and challenges of today’s energy landscape. Our purpose in the report is to analyze
how the forces at work in the energy sector both the long-term structural forces and the immediate
realities could shape its future. We also aim to highlight the gap between the world’s current
trajectory and what would be needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change as defined by the
Paris Agreement. Our scenarios and methodology Our research describes three plausible scenarios for
how a transition to a system of lower carbon energy could play out: Slow Evolution, Continued Momentum, and Sustainable Transformation. The scenarios encompass three broad areas that could affect the energy transition’s trajectory: policy, technology, and constraints (such as supply chain or grid investment).
In our analysis, we grounded the long-term outlook in near-term reality by incorporating observed data,
such as energy projects that are already in operation or have reached final investment decision (FID). The
scenarios do not constitute McKinsey’s view on what should happen but rather present a range of
plausible outcomes. We do not assign probabilities to the scenarios, recognizing the complexity of the
energy transition. Energy and sustainability remain closely intertwined, as carbon emissions from fossil fuel consumption directly affect climate change. Over the past year, emissions reached record highs, further widening the gap between our three modeled scenarios and the pathway that could limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, one of the central goals of the Paris Agreement.
The expected temperature change by 2100 in our scenarios is 1.9°C in Sustainable Transformation,
2.3°C in Continued Momentum, and 2.7°C in Slow Evolution (Exhibit 1). These estimates are higher than
in any of our previous projections, and all have risen by approximately 0.1°C compared with our 2024
perspective. Despite a projected decline in emissions to 2050, emission estimates are still meaningfully above netzero targets across all scenarios. In the case of the Slow Evolution scenario, they are not predicted to decline substantially until after 2030.

source:

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