GREEN RESILIENT, AND INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT
One year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has experienced an unprecedented humanitarian and economic tragedy. This includes over 2.5 million deaths, more than 100 million people regressing into extreme poverty, the equivalent of 255 million jobs lost, 265 million people driven into acute hunger, and the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.1 The pandemic’s economic and social effects have compounded climate change impacts, which have been intensifying over time, particularly the last two decades. The poor and vulnerable have been hit especially hard,2 also bearing the brunt of natural disasters and violent conflicts. As a result, poverty reduction and shared prosperity have suffered their worst setback in decades. Even as economies recover, many of the consequences will likely endure. Economic prospects, already weakening before COVID19, have worsened significantly. The decade after the 2009 financial crisis was characterized by a litany of economic challenges, including growing structural weaknesses,4 such as: a slowdown in investment, productivity, employment, and growth; slower progress on poverty reduction and shared prosperity;5 rising debt levels; and limited fiscal buffers. The pandemic has aggravated these structural problems, bringing recession, a collapse in investment (global foreign direct investment fell by 42 percent in 2020, reaching levels not seen since the 1990s6) and prolonged unemployment. These are expected to significantly dampen growth over the next decade (figure 1). The pandemic has also triggered a surge in debt levels across low-income countries (LICs) and middle-income countries (MICs). Without rapid and Figure 2. Long-term global output projections Source: World Bank 2021.3 Note: 2010 prices. forceful policy responses at national and global levels, this could lead to a string of debt crises. When combined with the slow-onset impacts of climate change, the immediate socioeconomic shocks of COVID-19 could reverse decades of progress. The goal of lowering extreme poverty to 3 percent by 2030 may now be unachievable (figure 2).7 COVID-19 also threatens to reverse decades of hard-won gains in human capital and the SDGs, especially for women, girls, and other vulnerable populations. With a disproportionate impact on the poor and vulnerable, inequality is likely to worsen worldwide. Many of the sectors that have been hit hard by the pandemic have a high proportion of informal workers, who have limited access to health services and social protection.8 With 740 million women globally in informal employment and a majority employed in services, women are particularly impacted by the crisis. They have lost opportunities due to school closures, unpaid family care, and face heightened exposure to diseases in their role as caregivers.9 Child mortality is expected to rise by 45 percent globally, due to overburdened health services and less access to food. The pandemic is also expected to aggravate child malnutrition, with irreversible impacts on health and livelihoods. School closures and dropouts are likely to erode the education and skills of a whole generation of school children, particularly among the disadvantaged.11 Learning poverty has increased significantly—from 53 to 63 percent—in low- and middleincome countries (LMICs). Combined with de-skilling through prolonged unemployment, this will likely lower future earnings and dent human capital. Unless addressed with decisive action, the consequences on human capital could be permanent. With LMICs accounting for 36 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) and 55 percent of global growth since 2010,12 a lost decade of development would have repercussions for the global economy.
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