Lessons from 25 policies advancing a low-carbon future

Addressing climate change is no longer about high-level commitments: it is about transformative policies and action. While countries’ pledges and targets are increasingly consistent with global objectives, the world is still on track for unprecedented climate change. The 2018–22 global mean temperature average is now estimated to be 1.17 ± 0.13 degrees Celsius (°C) above the 1850–1900 average, rapidly approaching the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement (United Nations 2022). Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise. Although global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions dipped slightly in 2020 due to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, they rebounded in 2021, reaching the highest-ever annual level of 36.3 gigatons (Gt) (figure 1.1). Models estimate that current policies are insufficient and would likely lead to a temperature increase of 2.6–2.9°C. To meet their commitments and achieve the Paris Agreement’s objective, countries will need ambitious packages of new policies that catalyze and coordinate the full decarbonization of their economies. They will need to invest in decarbonizing the electricity supply; electrifying, substituting fuel, and taking efficiency measures in transport, buildings, and industry; adopting low-carbon agriculture practices; and protecting and expanding forests and other natural carbon sinks (Kuramochi et al. 2018). Implementing such policies will require changes in infrastructure, lifestyle, and behavior and will include actions such as switching cars for public and active transport modes, designing low-carbon livable cities, adopting plant-based and healthier diets, improving material use and recycling, implementing circular economy principles, and preparing current and future workers for the green economy. T he economic benefits of following such a low-carbon development pathway are increasingly evident, but the transition requires policy reforms that face hard institutional and political economy barriers. The World Bank’s new Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) show that, while following a low-carbon development pathway requires an additional annual investment of 1 to 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for a select set of countries, the net economic benefits of the transformation over the next several decades would be positive (World Bank 2023). Investing in decarbonization could add more than 60 million net new jobs globally (ILO 2012). However, the transition toward low-carbon pathways faces important barriers, including the need for large upfront investments, the lack of institutional capacity, significant distributional impacts ( especially in coal regions), and challenging political economy issues.

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https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/3770b59a-617f-4636-8aa1-adbe6db7db34