Pakistan’s low-carbon energy outlook and technology road map
The energy resources of Pakistan consist of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, nuclear fuel, and renewable energy such as hydropower, solar, wind and biomass. The hydropower potential of the country is large and is estimated to be about 50–60 gigawatts (GW).1 Pakistan currently imports one-third of its primary energy sources including coal, oil, and natural gas (ADB 2019). Continued dependence on energy imports has raised challenges related to high energy costs, while about 40 million people (20% of the population) do not have access to electricity (IEA, Pakistan 2021). To curb import dependence and rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, decentralized solar energy systems, combined with investment in other green sources of energy, are essential (ADB 2019). Over the years, the country had diversified its energy supply, but by 2019, more than 62% of primary energy was supplied from fossil-based energy sources, with coal having the highest growth (IEA, Pakistan 2021). Emissions from energy-related sources have almost doubled since 2000. This growth was driven by the previous energy policy, which relied on coal imports and increasing domestic coal production to meet the growing energy demand. If expansion plans are based on coal-based capacity, emissions will continue to rise rapidly. Between 2020 and 2050, the economy is estimated to grow by more than three times and the population is expected to increase by 85 million. Rapid economic growth and rising levels of urbanization will lead to higher energy requirements in future and the key challenge will be to supply this energy with a sustainable level of emissions. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is among the top 10 climate-affected countries in the world. The National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan estimated that over 1994–2013, an average annual economic loss of $4 billion could be attributed to climate adversities (UNFCCC 2015). The Government of Pakistan recognizes the adverse impacts of climate change and is committed to addressing the problem of rising emissions. In 2016, as part of the climate change negotiations, under the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) the government proposed to reduce up to 20% of national GHG emissions by 2030, taking 2015 as the base year. In 2021, the government agreed to revised NDCs that extended this target to an overall 50% reduction by 2030, where 15% is unconditional and the remaining 35% is conditional on receipt of adequate international financial assistance. (UNFCCC 2021) This report explores future energy and emissions pathways for Pakistan’s energy sector up to 2050. It is divided into four sections. Chapter 1 sets out the model used to project two alternative scenarios for the evolution of energy supply, demand, and emissions. One is based on an assessment of the continuance of current trends (the business-as-usual [BAU] scenario) and the other takes account of new policy targets and gives greater emphasis to green technologies and energy efficiency (the low-carbon scenario). Chapter 2 gives the results of the model. These results are not precise predictions of what will happen, but rather outcomes that would occur if the assumptions underlying the scenarios and the coefficients and relationships underlying the model match reality. Chapter 3 gives the different technologies and efficiency measures that are required to meet the future low-carbon pathway. Chapter 4 gives estimates of cost of investment requirements if the low-carbon pathway is to be achieved and discusses the sources of funding for this future investment. Chapter 5 gives the conclusions and the implications of a low-carbon pattern of development in Pakistan.
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