Climate Adaptation Modelling

There is now a long and well-established field of adaptation assessment and modelling, stretching back several decades to the early IPCC assessment reports. However, as we enter the decade of the 2020s—and start to plan for climate risks towards the middle of the century—adaptation needs are changing. Adaptation is moving from the theoretical to the applied, and this requires modelling that supports informed decision-making for implementation. At the same time, our experience of modelling adaptation over the years has provided many lessons and has identified a number of challenges. These include the following:
· Adaptation does not involve a single quantitative objective and it cannot be assessed with a single common metric that applies to all risks and sectors (UNEP 2018). This makes it very different from mitigation.
· Adaptation involves complex temporal dimensions, as it seeks to address impacts that very dynamically and non-linearly overtime.
It also has to consideraction against a background of high uncertainty(WilbyandDessai2010).
This uncertainty relates to future emission scenarios, climate model projections, socio-economic scenarios, the physical impacts of climate change, and there fore, the potential benefits of adaptation. These temporal and uncertainty issues make modelling complex.
· Adaptation involves a range of actions, at different aggregation scales(from European level to local). The benefits of this adaptation are often difficult to model, in quantitative terms, because it involves reductions in impacts that are sector-,location and context-specific. Furthermore, adaptation involves a mix of types of interventions, includingnon-technicaloptionssuchascapacitybuildingthataremoredifficult to model, but which are critical for effective adaptation. The prioritisation of adaptation options requires extended decision support methods (Chambwera et al. 2014), which include consideration of risk and uncertainty.

source :

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4