Electricity 2025: Analysis and Forecast to 2027

“Electricity 2025: Analysis and Forecast to 2027” report by the IEA provides a detailed analysis and forecast of global electricity demand, supply, emissions, and market trends from 2025 to 2027.

Global Electricity Demand Growth
• 2024 increase: +4.3% (strongest in years).
• Forecast (2025-2027): +3,500 TWh (~4% per year).
• Total global demand in 2024: ~29,500 TWh.
• 2025-2027 growth equivalent: Adding Japan’s yearly electricity use annually.
• Emerging economies: 85% of growth, with China contributing 50%.
• India’s growth: +6.3% per year (higher than 2015-2024 avg. +5%).
• Africa: 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack reliable electricity.

China’s Electricity Demand
• 2024 demand growth: +7% (~5,900 TWh total).
• Forecasted growth (2025-2027): +6% per year.
• Electrification share: 28% of total final energy consumption (vs. 22% US, 21% EU).
• Industrial electricity use: 60% of total demand (~OECD avg. 32%).
• Renewable manufacturing: PV modules, batteries, and EVs used 300 TWh in 2024 (equal to Italy’s total consumption).
• Data centers: Consumed 100+ TWh in 2024, forecast 200+ TWh by 2027.
• Peak demand: 1,451 GW (July 2024), +100 GW vs. 2023.
• EV charging: 80 TWh in 2023, 100+ TWh in 2024.
• Air conditioning: Cooling load hit 420-450 GW in 2024, up 100 GW from 2023.

Electricity Demand in Advanced Economies
• United States: +2% growth in 2024 (new high), forecast +2% per year (2025-2027).
• EU: Declined -3% in 2022 & 2023, slight recovery +1.4% in 2024, not returning to 2021 levels before 2027.

Renewable Energy Growth (2025-2027)
• Renewables share: Expected to meet >95% of demand growth.
• Solar PV: 2,000 TWh in 2024 (7% of global generation, up from 5% in 2023).
• Solar PV contribution: ~600 TWh added per year (~Korea’s total use).
• Wind energy: ~33% of additional electricity demand (2025-2027).
• Nuclear power: Record high in 2025, growth from France, Japan, China, India, Korea.

Carbon Emissions & Fossil Fuel Trends
• CO₂ emissions: 13,800 Mt in 2024, expected to plateau through 2027.
• Coal-fired generation: Stagnant, dropping below 33% share for first time this century.
• Gas-fired generation: +1% per year (2025-2027), growing in Middle East & Asia, offsetting declines in Europe & Americas.

Electricity Prices & Market Trends
• Wholesale prices: -20% in 2024 (EU, India, UK, US).
• Negative pricing events: Increasing in Australia, California, Europe due to grid inflexibility.
• Dunkelflaute (low wind/solar periods): Caused major price spikes in N. Europe (winter 2024/2025).

Electricity Security & Extreme Weather

• Extreme weather disruptions in 2024:
•> US winter storms (January): Widespread outages.
•> Hurricanes in Atlantic: Power disruptions across US & Caribbean.
•> El Niño droughts: Hydro supply shortages in Ecuador, Colombia, Mexico.

• Security measures needed:
•> More dispatchable generation (gas, nuclear).
•> Increased grid storage & interconnections.
•> Enhanced demand-side response & market flexibility.

Source:

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