Plausible global emissions scenario for 2 °C aligned with China’s net-zero pathway
China’s net-zero pathway offers a realistic route to limit global warming to 2°C without extreme decarbonization.
Current climate scenarios rely on decade-old data, missing China’s policy shifts and the impact of the pandemic. Since China accounts for one-third of global CO2 emissions, its trajectory determines global outcomes.
New research projects global CO2 concentrations peaking by 2062, net-zero emissions by 2072, and temperatures reaching 2.01°C by 2100 before dropping below 2°C. China’s emissions peak around 2028-2029 at 12.8 GtCO2, with the Asia-Pacific region driving 42% of global reductions (17 Gt CO2 annually by 2100). Temperature overshoot stays limited to 0.15°C maximum.
Even this “realistic” pathway requires unprecedented coordination and still temporarily overshoots and could trigger tipping points before stabilizing.
Source:
Temukan peta dengan kualitas terbaik untuk gambar peta indonesia lengkap dengan provinsi.
