Renewable energy in climate change adaptation: metrics and risk assessment framework
The necessity of renewable energy in any transition towards a climate-friendly future is undisputed. According to IRENA’s flagship reports, World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023 and 2024, the largest shares in the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions cuts needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 under the 1.5°C pathway will come from the use of renewables in power generation and, directly, in heat and transport, combined with energy conservation and energy efficiency. These measures would account for over half the necessary cuts in global CO2 emissions. An additional 19% of the cuts would come from direct electrification of end-use sectors, and 12% from using hydrogen and its derivatives, including synthetic fuels and feedstocks (IRENA, 2023, 2024a).
Renewable energy thus features largely when it comes to climate change mitigation. Often overlooked is the role that renewable energy can also play in climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation is a dire need for many countries that are increasingly experiencing the impacts of changing climatic conditions. The World Meteorological Organization reports that the frequency and intensity of climate
extremes, from record-breaking heatwaves to devastating floods, are on the rise and that between 1970
and 2019 the number of climate-related events increased fivefold (WMO, 2021, 2023). If current emission
reduction efforts remain unchanged, we are on track for a 2.8°C increase in global temperature by the
century’s end a recipe for catastrophic climate change and irreversible damage. Furthermore, inaction on climate change could cost the world’s economy USD 178 trillion in present value terms between 2021 and 2070 (Philip et al., 2022), while under a middle-of-the-road scenario of future income development (SSP24) Koltz et al. (2024) assessed that it will be around USD 38 trillion (likely range of USD 19–59 trillion)
in 2049.
This highlights the urgent need to embrace adaptation measures not only to alleviate the immediate impacts of climate change but also to pave the way towards a more resilient and thriving future.
At COP28 (the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), the Global Stocktake urged countries to enhance their climate change adaptation ambitions, underscoring the urgent need to accelerate global adaptation efforts and chart a robust path for the next five years. While the COP28 decision acknowledged significant strides in adaptation planning and implementation, it also recognised the substantial gaps and challenges that persist. The decision rightly emphasised the importance of integrated, multisectoral and gender-responsive solutions and called for the establishment of national adaptation policies by 2025. A total of USD 792 million has been pledged for loss and damage funding arrangements, of which USD 662 million is for the Loss and Damage Fund, including USD 100 million from the United Arab Emirates (COP28, 2024).
National adaptation policies, though discussed and agreed on at the global level, must be designed and
implemented at the local or regional level. Like any other policy, adaptation policy design will benefit from a sound and science-based estimate of its effects. This entails identifying adaptation solutions before the policy and monitoring them after implementation to be able to compare the changes, costs and benefits from the policy. Policy frameworks are essential not only for responding to climate impacts but also for ensuring that adaptation strategies are implemented efficiently and effectively. However, while climate mitigation interventions can be easily measured and tracked, adaptation is harder to measure and often requires rigorous scientific knowledge. As the world increasingly turns to renewable energy solutions to address climate change, understanding how these solutions contribute to climate adaptation efforts is a critical gap that needs to be bridged.
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