What does Indonesia’s new president mean for the country’s just energy transition?

When Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as Indonesia’s eighth president on October 20, 2024, many hoped for bold leadership on critical issues like climate change and energy transition. With an unexpected pledge at the G20 Summit in Brazil to retire all coal-fired and fossil-fueled power plants within 15 years, he seemed to signal a new era of ambition. Yet, beneath the surface of this striking promise lies a tangled web of entrenched interests, policy loopholes, and political compromises that cast doubt on Indonesia’s ability to deliver a just and sustainable energy future.

A Legacy of Loopholes

The legacy of Prabowo’s predecessor, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), is both a starting point and a cautionary tale. Jokowi’s flagship Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), unveiled during the 2022 G20 Summit, seemed to champion renewable energy and a greener future. However, the plan’s fine print told a different story. A ban on new coal-fired power plants excluded industrial facilities, allowing emissions from captive coal plants to soar. Between 2013 and 2023, captive coal capacity ballooned eightfold, now accounting for nearly a quarter of Indonesia’s coal power—an exclusion that undermines the very essence of the energy transition.

Further complicating matters, the JETP Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP), released in 2023, sidestepped captive power entirely. Critics have questioned whether this reflected genuine political will or strategic compromises with powerful coal interests. Jokowi’s late-term decisions, such as promoting carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and granting coal mining concessions to religious organisations, seemed to deepen the country’s entrenchment in fossil fuels while claiming to champion sustainability.

Prabowo’s Pledge: Vision or Veneer?

Prabowo’s G20 pledge to phase out coal plants and build 75 gigawatts of renewable power in the next 15 years has drawn both applause and scepticism. The challenge ahead is immense: dismantling a deeply ingrained reliance on coal while addressing policies that have long prioritized fossil fuels under the guise of economic development.

Prabowo’s close ties to the coal industry—evidenced by endorsements from coal magnates like Garibaldi “Boy” Thohir—raise serious doubts about his commitment to meaningful change. Without addressing the policy loopholes that allow captive coal to flourish and rejecting questionable climate solutions like CCS, Prabowo’s lofty promises risk becoming empty rhetoric.

A Collision of Interests

The decision to grant coal mining concessions to influential Islamic organisations like Nahdatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah illustrates the complex interplay of politics, religion, and energy. Framed as a move to support local communities, this decision has sparked criticism from environmentalists and internal dissent within these organisations. While some younger members voice opposition, the broader implication is clear: when religious groups are tied to coal, they lose their power to advocate for a just energy transition. This alignment of powerful interests—political, industrial, and religious—threatens to stifle opposition and entrench the status quo.

Paths to Progress

Despite these challenges, Indonesia’s energy future is not yet written. Public and civil society organisations hold the potential to reshape the narrative, pushing for a revised JETP that closes loopholes and prioritises renewable energy. The ongoing revision of the CIPP represents a critical opportunity to include captive coal plants in phase-out plans and redefine Indonesia’s path toward sustainability.

Local initiatives offer a glimmer of hope, showcasing what a community-driven energy transition could look like. Youth-led organisations like Climate Rangers are leading the charge, bringing solar power to Islamic boarding schools and villages, while groups like Kanopi Hijau Indonesia and university students work to install solar panels and micro-hydro plants in underserved areas. These grassroots projects demonstrate the viability of decentralised, renewable energy systems that prioritise community empowerment over profit.

A Call to Action

For Indonesia to achieve its vision of a just, affordable, and accessible energy transition, it must break free from the grip of coal oligarchs and align its policies with the aspirations of its people. Religious organisations, as critical voices within civil society, should champion clean energy initiatives rather than perpetuate fossil fuel dependency. The public, too, must demand accountability and transparency from their leaders, challenging decisions that undermine climate goals.

Prabowo’s administration faces a choice: to double down on a coal-powered past or to embrace a transformative vision for Indonesia’s energy future. While the obstacles are significant, the opportunities are equally profound. By investing in community-based renewable projects and holding the government accountable, Indonesia can turn its energy transition into a model for climate justice—not just for its own people, but for the world.

The stakes are high, but the path forward is clear. Will Prabowo’s presidency mark the turning point for Indonesia’s energy future? Or will it be remembered as a missed opportunity to lead the world in the fight against climate change? The answer lies in the choices made today—and in the voices of those bold enough to demand a better tomorrow.

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What Does Indonesia’s New President Mean for the Country’s Just Energy Transition?