Why all cities need to adapt to climate change
Every region in the world is already experiencing the effects of climate change, and this will increase in the coming decades.1 With current policies and action, we are on track for an estimated 2.7°C or more of warming above pre-industrial levels by 21002 – hotter than at any point in human history, with climates very different to those our cities, and the systems they rely on, were built for. All cities should adapt now, rather than respond later. This is why.
Early climate change impacts are already here. They are guaranteed to get worse.
The world has already warmed by 1.3°C.3 More global heating and associated climate impacts is unavoidable. The IPCC’s 2021 AR6 report finds that we are likely to pass the 1.5°C mark – the threshold for a climate safe future – between around 2030 and 2035.4 Without strong near-term mitigation, temperatures will exceed the more dangerous threshold of 2°C between the early 2040s and early 2050s.5 With the policies and action currently in place, we could reach a devastating 3.4°C of warming by 2100.6
The link between greenhouse gas emissions and increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is unequivocal.7 This means that cities need to begin adapting to climate risks today, and ensure that new investments are suitable for the city’s future climate.
The main risks that cities face from climate change are:
- Death, illness and economic costs resulting from more frequent and severe heatwaves, flooding, drought, storms, wildfires, coastal inundation and abnormally cold conditions. These events can lead to major disruptions in city and business operations, with devastating financial, social and physical impacts. In the last few years, the city of Zhengzhou received more than its annual average rainfall in just five days, breaking a Chinese national record and leading to flash floods that killed over 300 people, with economic losses of US$17.7 billion.8 Other cities such as Lima have also faced extraordinary floods and landslides at a scale never seen before. Consecutive droughts across large areas of Africa, Asia and Latin America coincided with storms and cyclones, resulting in food insecurity or worse and affecting livelihoods;9 Cape Town almost reached ‘Day Zero’, when the city would no longer be able to provide water to its population.10 Heat waves and wildfires have raged around Los Angeles, Athens, and towns in Queensland and British Columbia, breaking records for their frequency and devastation.11 These are just a few examples; there are countless more.
- Increased food insecurity. Climate change is already causing reduced crop nutrition and yields, fish depletion and the loss of plant and insect species. Food shortages drive up costs, and the urban poor are especially at risk from supply disruptions. Food scarcity can also lead to conflict and unrest.
- Higher domestic and international migration to cities. Climate change will increase migration and displacement due to the immense stress it places on agriculture-dependent communities. Most migrants and refugees move to cities, seeking new livelihood opportunities.12 Many cities will need to integrate (sometimes rapid influxes of) new populations.13
- Biological hazards, particularly vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. Climate change will lead to these diseases spreading to new areas as climate conditions become more favourable for them. Climate change, and actions that accelerate global heating such as deforestation, also increase infectious disease risk and the likelihood of another pandemic.14
Adaptation has immediate benefits and a clear economic case
Unmitigated disaster events, and impacts of climate extremes like droughts, are very expensive and damaging for cities. Adaptation needs large investments, but it is cheaper overall than not adapting and being forced to spend on disaster relief and recovery later on. It is also saving lives, and minimises disruption and damage.15
Adaptation helps to unlock economic potential by encouraging investment. The possibility of unmitigated disaster events impacts investment decisions and cities’ economic growth; firms avoid long-term investments in productive assets, entrepreneurship is restricted, and planning horizons are shortened, leading to lost development opportunities.16 Increasingly, climate action can also improve a city’s credit rating.
Adaptation delivers near-term health, societal and economic benefits.17 Most adaptation investments serve multiple purposes and quickly provide everyday benefits for cities and citizens. For instance, strengthened river embankments can be used as pedestrian walkways, cycle lanes or parks; nature-based or ‘green’ adaptation solutions that use vegetation to reduce heat, drought and flood risk also help to improve air quality, environmental conservation and citizens’ wellbeing, as well as absorbing greenhouse gases. Reducing the risks of disasters also improves political security and helps reduce civil unrest, hunger and disease, contributing to a stable environment for social and economic development. These benefits outweigh the costs of potential losses by a factor of four, on average.18
Mexico City, which faces increasing water scarcity, and has installed nearly 500 rainwater harvesting systems and water purification technologies. This has already provided water security and financial savings to over 56,000 people, as well as reduced water-borne disease.19
Barcelona has responded to the growing risks of extreme heat and drought by increasing tree coverage in the city from 5% to 30%. The drought-resistant trees minimise the urban heat island effect, which has had also helped to improve air quality and reduce annual utility bills from air-conditioning in buildings by $10m.20
Austin is increasing its resilience to extreme summer heat and flash flooding by planting more than 1,000 trees on public land in the city. For each $1 invested in tree planting, $10 of ecosystem value is delivered via benefits such as improved stormwater management and reduced energy demand for cooling.21
Adaptation needs to be a core part of climate action planning
Cities need comprehensive, city-wide and multi-hazard adaptation strategies based on an assessment of their climate risks.
Climate risks for interdependent city systems
Climate threats and hazards impact urban infrastructure systems for energy, transport, telecommunications, water and wastewater, solid waste, buildings and food, which are very interdependent. Infrastructure systems with critical interdependencies are highly vulnerable to natural hazards; extreme weather events cause ripple effects across these systems, with damaged facilities and reduced services in one sector impacting on others. Read more in How to address infrastructure interdependencies when adapting to climate change.
Climate risks affect every city differently depending on their geography, and socio-economic and demographic contexts. Cities climate risk is influenced by the hazards they are exposed to, and the vulnerability of the city’s assets and population to those hazards. Climate hazards have an outsized impact on lower income communities and cities, especially in the Global South.
An adaptation strategy can take the form of a standalone (but linked) strategy, or it can be a component of a climate action plan and/or of a comprehensive city plan. Cities that do not consider their climate risks in a wider plan can increase their vulnerability to climate change. Cities also need to integrate climate risk into sectoral and urban planning.
Cities can prioritise ‘no- or low-regrets’ adaptation options in the adaptation strategy, which are relatively low cost and deliver multiple health, societal, economic and mitigation benefits as well as reducing climate risk. The Adaptation and Mitigation Interaction Assessment tool can help with this.
To get started, read:
- How to conduct a climate change risk assessment.
- How to identify adaptation goals and strategies.
- Nature-based solutions: How cities can use nature to manage climate risks.
- How to adapt your city to extreme heat.
- How to reduce flood risk in your city.
- How to manage water scarcity and adapt to drought.
- How to protect urban lives, health and property from wildfire.
- How to adapt your city to sea level rise and coastal flooding.
- Resources on reducing climate change impacts on clean energy supplies, food systems, mass transit, municipal buildings, new buildings, private buildings, walking and cycling and waste systems.
Cities should also measure adaptation progress. Read Measuring progress in urban climate change adaptation: a monitoring, evaluating and reporting framework for guidance.
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