Climate resilience development policy 2020-2045

The trend of global temperature represents an increase over the global surface. The increase is not only the average global temperature but also frequent extremes (both high and low) of daily and seasonal temperature that occurs in many places. Similarly, the frequency and duration of heatwaves have also been predicted to increase. In this changing atmosphere, the water cycle is responding to the trend of global surface temperature with changing rainfall patterns during wet and dry seasons. The simulation shows an increase in rainfall in the equatorial area, especially on the Pacific Ocean. Changes in long-term climate parameters also affect the climate variability such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and monsoon.

Climate change can affect extreme weather which implies the frequency and intensity of disasters, particularly hydrometeorological disasters such as floods, landslides, abrasion, etc. The increasing temperature and changing rainfall patterns can affect seasonal periods of longer dry seasons, shorter wet
seasons or vice versa. Other impacts from changing temperature and rainfall patterns are drought and
decreasing water availability. This condition poses significant risks in water demand for agriculture,
households, and other economic activities. In the agricultural sector, water availability is necessary
for crop growth and production. For several central commodity areas, the decrease in water supply
reduces crop productivity, shifts the cropping patterns, and changes the crop variety.

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