Still Digging 2026
The global coal market is showing clear signs of slowing, yet coal mine expansion plans continue to grow. Data from Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Mine Tracker (GCMT) show that new coal mining capacity entering operation fell to a new decade low in 2025. This development mirrored broader global trends: Global coal demand grew by less than 0.5% in 2025 and is expected to plateau through 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). In addition, increasingly competitive wind and solar power overtook coal in global electricity generation for the first time in 2025, driving down coal-fired electricity generation by 0.6%, according to Ember.
Despite these slowdown signals, the global coal mine pipeline expanded by nearly 11% over the past year to 2,521 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) across 834 proposed projects, according to the GCMT. Nearly all of the increase was driven by India, while China’s proposed capacity remained relatively flat but still exceeded that of the rest of the world combined. Together, just five countries (China, India, Australia, Russia, and South Africa) account for nearly 92% of the global project pipeline.
The imbalance between new development and planned retirements also remains striking. By 2035, only about 1,145 Mtpa of currently operating coal mining capacity is scheduled to retire — less than half the amount of proposals. At the same time, roughly three-quarters of proposed capacity consists of new (“greenfield”) mines, with expansion focused primarily on creating new production rather than extending existing operations.
The push for new coal mines despite flattening demand suggests that the global coal mine pipeline is increasingly being driven by factors beyond market demand, as governments support new coal production as a hedge against geopolitical risks and, in some countries, as feedstock for industries such as coal-to-chemicals.
Yet these strategies reflect an energy security playbook developed when few viable energy alternatives existed. As low-cost clean energy continues to displace coal, the economic rationale for expanding coal mining becomes progressively weaker. Rather than locking in decades of additional coal production, governments have an opportunity to cancel projects that remain in the development pipeline before they advance to construction.
Global data summary
Global coal markets continued to slow in 2025, even as plans for new coal mines continued to expand. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal demand growth slowed to less than 0.5% in 2025 and is expected to plateau through 2030, while coal-fired electricity generation fell by 0.6% in 2025, according to Ember. Despite these trends, the global pipeline of proposed coal mining capacity continued to grow, expanding from 2,270 Mtpa reported in 2024 to at least 2,521 Mtpa in 2025.
Proposed coal mine development also became increasingly concentrated geographically. China, India, Australia, Russia, and South Africa accounted for nearly 92% of proposed coal mining capacity in 2025, with India responsible for nearly all of the annual increase. At the same time, planned retirements remain far outpaced by proposed additions, with less than half as much operating capacity scheduled to retire by 2035 as is currently proposed for development.
Together, these trends point to a coal sector increasingly disconnected from underlying market signals; while demand growth and new mine commissioning are slowing, a small number of countries continue to sustain a large pipeline of future mine development.
